Adjustment before the cross year rise of the hotte

2022-08-23
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After entering this week, the global Tianjiao showed a large-scale correction. Tokyo Jiao fell continuously from the annual high of 300 yen to around 280 yen. Shanghai Jiao futures also got rid of the previous continuous stagflation trend and sought support downward against the background of weak momentum

the author has been receiving investors this week. The sharp decline in the rubber market began to shake the confidence of some investors who were firmly bullish in the early stage. The author believes that the rapid decline of Tianjiao in the short term is just an adjustment before brewing a large-scale rising market in the future, which has little impact on the cross-year rise of Tianjiao

first of all, we should look at the root cause of this Sunday's sharp decline in rubber, which is obviously not caused by fundamentals. The tight supply situation in Southeast Asian production areas remains, and the sudden sharp fall in rubber prices on Monday is closely related to the exchange rate and the rapid decline of bulk commodities such as gold and crude oil in surrounding markets from high levels. The appreciation of the yen was the trigger for the sharp decline of the Japanese glue. From November 7 to 9, the US dollar fell back from 115 to 109 against the Japanese yen for three consecutive trading days. The rapid appreciation of the yen in the short term had a strong impact on the Tokyo glue. In addition, the sharp fall of the Nikkei index on the same day had an impact on market sentiment, and the exchange rate led to the imbalance of price comparison, which needed to be corrected by price adjustment

the more important factor is that the fund that has held a large number of multiple orders in the early stage has sold 10% this week Display mode: data and curves are dynamically displayed with the experimental process; Now there is a strong desire for profit taking, and the fund has no confidence to continue to be bullish on rubber? I don't think so. The fund is more of a commodity investment behavior in Japan's rubber futures market. It not only participates in rubber futures, but also participates in a large number of investment categories such as gold, crude oil and Nikkei index futures. Therefore, its closing of rubber positions is only a short-term option developed according to the overall situation, and does not have the significance of long-term and timely wiping clean period with lens paper. It can be observed from the trading practices of Japanese glue futures fund that after completing a round of rising trend, the shorter the adjustment time is, the greater the intensity is, which is often a kind of washing behavior. In December, 2005, after the historical breakthrough of 200 yen, Japanese rubber futures also formed three consecutive decline limits from the high of 226 yen, but we can see the subsequent trend all the way up to a new historical high

from the perspective of fundamentals, November is also a key time period that is easy to make the rubber price callback over the years. In terms of the domestic market, the relative inventory pressure will be relatively large in November, December and even January, which has just stopped cutting. As a rubber cutting season draws to a close, a large amount of rubber will gradually concentrate. A special phenomenon this year is that the inventory in the production area is basically integrated into the futures delivery Library in the early stage, because the forward contract of Shanghai rubber futures market has been in the state of high water rise, There are profit opportunities for futures and cash arbitrage transactions. Therefore, the inventory level of Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased significantly for three consecutive weeks

with the sharp decline of Japanese rubber futures, the quotation in the international spot market also began to fall. Domestic rubber enterprises that missed the opportunity to buy at a low price in the early stage have made inquiries and bought. Some small and medium-sized enterprises and some large-scale enterprises, quality inspection units and other units have used the current price to buy a large number of spot and incoming goods, indicating that the downstream inventory is still low and there is still a large purchase demand in the near future. As the film raw materials in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the main production areas, are still small, and the turnover of the three central markets in Thailand is only 31 tons, which further indicates that rubber farmers and secondary distributors are reluctant to sell or have no raw material inventory. The price of Indonesian raw materials remained unchanged from last week after the two limit declines in Japan, indicating that the supply of the entire international market was still very tight before the weather improved

looking forward to the future of Tianjiao, the international market entered a high production period in December. If the supply is still insufficient due to weather factors in the peak season, the glue price will form an anti seasonal trend; The domestic investment is also relatively large, and the recent high-level stagflation and low-level resistance of the market are also a true reflection of its own fundamentals. The current Shanghai Jiao futures market is a bit like Dalian soybeans at the end of 2006 and the beginning of 2007. Under the pressure of high inventory, the trend falters. However, as the cut-off period approaches, we will see the gradual digestion of inventory, and the rise in the future market will also be reflected with the digestion of inventory. (Wang Weibo)

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